Instituto Equilíbrio works to broaden the understanding of how climate transition impacts Brazil’s economic development, promoting informed and evidence-based dialogue.
In this section, we present qualified data that contributes to improving the public debate — always with scientific rigour and technical neutrality.
Below, we list key data on land use and CO₂ emissions in Brazil, as well as the opportunities unlocked by a broader perspective that ensures productivity, food security, and climate resilience:
In 2024, total emissions from the Brazilian agriculture and livestock sector reached approximately 1.24 billion tonnes of CO₂ eq, an increase compared to the previous year (631.2 million tonnes of CO₂ eq in 2023).
Livestock remains the biggest driver of impact, due to both direct emissions and deforestation linked to pasture expansion.
Land Use Change (LUC): 46% – Refers to alterations in the original land use, such as clearing forests to make way for pasture or crops, and converting native vegetation into agricultural or urban areas. When land is deforested, carbon stored in trees and soil is released into the atmosphere.
Agriculture and Livestock: 28%, which includes: Use of nitrogen-based fertilisers; o Use of agricultural pesticides and lime to correct soil acidity (which releases CO₂ in the chemical process and generates emissions);Burning of crop residues such as rice, wheat, sugarcane, and others — releasing carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and methane; Ruminant animals such as cattle and sheep emit greenhouse gases through “enteric fermentation,” which produces methane, particularly when large numbers of animals are raised in confined spaces (dairy farms, pig and poultry operations).
Energy: 18% – Includes the burning of fossil fuels for electricity generation and transport.
• Industry: 4% – Related to industrial processes that release greenhouse gases.
• Waste: 4% – Resulting from wastewater treatment, sewage, and the decomposition of solid waste in landfills.
Agribusiness faces profound challenges amid the climate transition, requiring adaptation to ensure productivity and food security.
The 2024 Thematic Report on Agriculture, Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services highlights that changes in regional climate could compromise the viability of 74% of agricultural lands in the Amazon-Cerrado frontier by 2060.
The greatest exposure to climate risk is related to droughts — considered the most significant long-term event — and to the biomes of the Cerrado, Atlantic Forest, and Pampa, as well as to the consumer staples sector, which includes agriculture and livestock.
Brazil is one of the world’s largest food producers and exporters — supplying both domestic and international demand — and has the potential to become a global leader in adopting climate solutions, combining science, governance, and financing.
A McKinsey study estimates that Brazil could add up to USD 100 billion to its GDP by 2030 if it seizes the emerging opportunities, potentially creating 6.4 million new jobs in the period.
There are numerous economic growth opportunities in the transition to climate-resilient practices, particularly in response to growing demand for low-carbon food, bioenergy, and biofuels.
With the right incentives and innovative public policies, Brazil could become a global leader not only in food security but also in climate security.
Through science and technology, it is possible to restore soil productivity, enhance climate resilience, and capture carbon, via:
Pasture management – Restoring degraded pastures can double land productivity, reduce pressure for deforestation, and increase carbon sequestration in the soil.
No-till farming – By avoiding soil disturbance, this method preserves organic matter, helps retain carbon and water, and reduces erosion and the need for inputs.
ILPF (Crop-Livestock-Forest Integration) – This system encourages diversified production, efficient land use, and increased carbon stocks by integrating trees, crops, and pastures synergistically.
Efficient fertiliser use – Reducing the use of nitrogen-based fertilisers, which emit nitrous oxide (N₂O), a potent greenhouse gas.
Use of bioenergy – Expanding the share of biofuels in the energy mix, such as second-generation ethanol.
Climate monitoring and precision agriculture – Using drones, sensors, and satellites to anticipate climate impacts and optimise production.
Positioning Brazilian agribusiness as a global leader in applied climate solutions and innovative public policy.
