By Eduardo Bastos, CEO of Instituto Equilíbrio
The transition to low-carbon agriculture is no longer a future challenge. It is already underway — and, more importantly, it is already demonstrating its potential to generate significant economic gains. A new study from the Bioeconomy Observatory at Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV), conducted with support from Instituto Equilíbrio and Agni, confirms a trend we observe every day: sustainability in agribusiness is productivity, competitiveness, and wealth creation for Brazil.
The numbers make this clear. Four widely accessible low-carbon technologies — biofuels, bioinputs, no-till farming (SPD), and intensive cattle finishing — have the potential to add up to R$ 94.8 billion per year to Brazil’s GDP by 2030. This impact reinforces the country’s strategic role in building a green and globally competitive economy.
The study shows that adopting these technologies is not only feasible — it is economically advantageous. Together, they can accelerate national growth, reduce emissions, and increase production efficiency, all at the same time.
Estimated GDP Impact by 2030
- Biofuels: R$ 71.4 billion
- Bioinputs: R$ 15.2 billion
- No-Till Farming (SPD): R$ 4.7 billion
- Intensive Finishing: R$ 3.5 billion
Combined, these represent one of the largest productivity and value-addition leaps ever recorded for Brazilian agribusiness. And importantly: these are technologies that Brazil already masters and deploys. The challenge is not invention — it is scale.
Another essential point: this transition could generate more than 700,000 direct jobs, especially in sectors such as bioenergy, biological inputs, agro-industry, and short-cycle livestock systems. Sustainable agriculture can become one of the most powerful regional development drivers in the country, increasing income and opportunities in rural territories.
Biofuels: The Strongest Multiplier Effect
Among the four technologies, biofuels stand out with the largest absolute GDP impact. National production could reach 63.9 billion liters by 2030 — a growth of nearly 70% compared to current levels.
This expansion triggers positive ripple effects across the economy:
• +8.1% in transportation activities
• +6.4% in manufacturing industries
• +3.5% in agriculture
• +1.2% in agro-industry
In practical terms, bioenergy is one of the most efficient pathways to combining energy security, decarbonization, and wealth creation.
Fewer Emissions, More Efficiency
The expanded adoption of low-carbon technologies also brings direct climate benefits:
• No-Till Farming: 7.4 MtCO₂e reduction
• Intensive Finishing: 19.3 MtCO₂e reduction
• Bioinputs: reduced pressure for new agricultural land
• Biofuels: direct replacement of fossil fuels
These are concrete climate gains that strengthen Brazil’s ability to produce more with less environmental impact.
What Is Still Missing to Capture This Potential?
Despite progress, structural challenges remain: financing aligned with the risk and returns of these technologies; public policies that reward efficiency and competitiveness; and market mechanisms that accelerate adoption.
But there is good news: producers are already moving forward, even in a context of high interest rates and uncertainty. This demonstrates that sustainability is not just a narrative — it is a source of real economic returns.
A Historic Opportunity for Brazil
Instituto Equilíbrio was created with the mission of supporting this transformation. We work to align science, public policy, innovation, markets, and communication — all essential elements for Brazil to consolidate its position as an agro-environmental powerhouse.
The message from FGV’s study is clear: green growth is a historic opportunity. The window is open, the technologies exist, and the benefits are undeniable. Now we must transform potential into policy, scale, and competitiveness.
Brazilian agribusiness is uniquely positioned to lead this transition.
